Tropical Storm predicted to bring high winds

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Kevdon22

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I am really worried about the prediction for very high winds in NJ over several days since my boats are docked in a lagoon and it is tough to keep the boat from banging into the dock piling. Lagoon runs N-S and boats are on the west side of lagoon where N-E wind gusts will push boat into dock piling. Last storm I had to constantly adjust fenders to keep in position with tide rise.
Time to add more fenders and hope track goes further out to east.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0916W5_NL+gif/213134W5_NL_sm.gif
 
Could you possibly rent a mooring for a few days so it can ride it out with swing room? Or move to a lee location or even haul if conditions look too risky where you are.

Otherwise possibly deploy a good anchor with chain and shock absorber snubber or Shockle, off the outer beam to help hold off the dock a scosh? Fender boards with 2 fenders each are another possible help in your situation.
 
What about turning it around in slip if it will fit better
 
+1 on fender boards. Make them long enough to allow the boat to slide either way a bit and still be protected. I used a loop of line around the fender to a hole drilled on each side of the fender into the board. That way the fenders are locked into the board sort of like a ubolt. Then I had the fender center lines hold the rig in place and the board had another line to each of the fender center lines to keep it from sliding down the fender.
 
Current Sea, Thanks for the thought.
I actually do not have a slip, the boat is docked along side and parallel to my bulkhead on a of a 6 foot wide dock supported from piling that is all along the bulkhead. I did add one mooring pile last year about 12' off the dock near the middle of the dock to help docking when the wind is strong pushing the boat off the dock. If I had a second pile for the stern I could probably keep the boat of the dock but I could not get the boat in because my neighbor also has a boat and jet ski's that stick out.
 
I had a similar issue. Installed several piles at the dock edge then added serious dock bumpers shown on the attached web site, not the toy bumpers sold at local stores. Then I added outside poles and used lines to just let the boat touch the bumpers when I pulled it in. Your neighbor should not be poking into your space.

http://www.decks-docks.com/dock-fenders.html
 
First, I am happy that we get much better storm warnings than many years ago, I can recall short warning notices that required me to scramble the last minute. Thank you NOAA for that.
On the other hand I am concerned that I and others, based on the media hype, tended to trust the accuracy of the NOAA forecasts too much, as evidenced by my initial post where the storm was supposed to stay close to the Atlantic coast with very high flooding and winds based on Computer Models.
While we were predicted to have flooding, rain, and near Hurricane winds we had none of that, except a rough Ocean. On Sunday Night I had a beautiful ride in the calm Bay, no wind, watching a great sunset.
Hermine track demonstrates that even short term computer models are not very accurate and we are misled by the "faith" in the weak models. NOAA totally blew the forecast for NJ and we need to remember how poor the computer models actually predict, things can even be worse for a location not in the predicted path.

Hermine fizzled out off the NJ coast while NOAA predicted return to Hurricane status in waters that are too cold to support development to a hurricane.
Enough criticism of NOAA on my part, I just wish they would add a probability to their predictions and admit the computer models have severe limitations. Below is the last Bulletin:

000
WTNT34 KNHC 061751
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2016

...ALL COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINUED...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON HERMINE...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.4N 72.3W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All coastal tropical storm warnings are discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

None.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Hermine was located near latitude 39.4 North, longitude 72.3 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west near 7 mph
(11 km/h). A decrease in forward speed is expected for the rest of
today, followed by a slow and erratic motion tonight and a
motion toward the northeast on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional gradual weakening is likely during the
next couple of days, and Hermine may weaken below tropical storm
force by Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Locally gusty winds over portions of Long Island and
southeastern New England should diminish during the next 24 hours.

STORM SURGE: Water levels remain elevated along the coast of Long
Island, but they should subside during the next day or so as
Hermine exits the area.

RAINFALL: Hermine is expected to produce additional light rainfall
amounts not exceeding 1 inch along the mid-Atlantic and southern New
England coastlines from New Jersey to eastern Long Island to
southeastern Massachusetts.

SURF: Large waves generated by Hermine will continue to affect the
U.S. east coast from the mid-Atlantic states through New England
for another couple of days. These waves are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and significant
beach erosion. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml,
and in products issued by local National Weather Service Forecast
Offices.
 
From what I have read ( various sources ), forecasting the track of "weak" and/or poorly organized storms is weak. Stronger/more organized storms are "moderately" predictable.

Add to this that forecasting the intensity is also weak.

The difficulty is that these systems are mathematically "chaotic". Even with huge computing resources, forecasting the track even a few days in advance has a wide degree of unreliability. The difficulty of the math makes a major improvement somewhat unlikely. The options increase geometrically, so once you hit the "elbow" of the curve, the whole plan sort of "blows up".

The "old guys" ( decades ago ) were actually pretty good, even with just ships reports, buoy reports and their local barometer. In an area such as this, apparently humans do a pretty fair job of pattern recognition.

-----------

In any event, NOAA et al do provide a reasonable estimation, based upon available data. The problem is not so much the forecast, ( which is actually accurate within the given error probability ), but rather the broadcasting of the info, presented by a media that needs to provoke interest/viewership. This leads to viewer confusion and the data user getting the wrong idea.

So, when a "big wind" is possible, you, as a user of that information, should assume that you have a challenge ahead, and make preparations. 90% of the time, this will simply be an exercise. You do it for the other 10%.
 
Bill,
I agree that one needs to take a conservative approach and make what ever precautions necessary to protect one's boat from severe weather, that's what I tried to do.
As such I followed the forecasts issued by NOAA every 3 hours to judge what steps I need to take to avoid or minimize damage since it first made landfall in Florida.
Unfortunately the NOAA predictions were not very accurate, I started saving screenshots of these 3 hour predictions and looking back at the data it is clear that NOAA were very challenged for this storm. As I mentioned earlier in the later stages they predicted the storm would return to a Hurricane off shore of NJ/Delmarva. Another source I found claimed that prediction was not possible due to the Atlantic water temperatures not being warm enough, with a temperature map to prove their point. NOAA was wrong.
The fact is NOAA did not do well on Hermine, they may do better on other storms where the atmospheric conditions are better defined.

The problem is many people will ignore their predictions if they are not better with negative consequences. They need to include probabilities when the track is not easily predicted.
Finally take a look at the errors in their historic long term temperature predictions from the computer models below and how they compare with actual temperatures.
The computer models are horrible.

https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2016/09/clip_image0043.png
 
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