Arthur.... is it coming your way?

HappyKamper

HappyKamper

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A storm is developing in the Bahamas. It has an 80% chance of developing into a tropical storm according to the weather channel. Looks to affect the NYC area around Friday July 4TH.
Check your boating plans.
 
Guest essay by Joe Bastardi, WeatherBell Analytics.

In the old days, one never had to worry about anything but hitting the forecast. But times have changed. With an agenda out there to take any weather event that attracts attention and turn into into a reason that an AGW driven atmospheric apocalypse is upon us, one has to make sure the physical grounds are stated before hand for why the event can occur.

We are faced with a potential nightmare.. a tropical cyclone coming at the outer banks on the July 4 weekend. I already have this as an 80 knot storm by July 4th, right on top of the North Carolina coast. That represents the mid ground of a fear this can be stronger. The post Sunday on Weatherbell.com on this outlined why. To refresh your memory, a look at the ECMWF 200 mb pattern Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, indicates why this can deepen so much, and as a matter of fact is in a prime area to do so.

For a complete analysis go to:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/06/...uter-banks-on-the-july-4-weekend/#more-112280
 
Yes, this will be the worst storm to maybe hit the US since 2012, also the first one since 2012. NBC had their weather guy standing on a beach in northern FL while they filmed the 1' waves.
 
They are saying "Possible tropical storm conditions" here. And 12 to 16 MPH wind.

????????
 
I just read what Joe Bastardi had to say. Considering he's most certainly NOT a "climate-change" fan, he's someone I tend to pay attention to.

Les, the TV people don't impress me until they stand out in the blowing "brown froth" complaining that it smells and tastes bad. :-)

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Actually, I'm watching this because I happen to be in Nags Head for the week. Guess I'll be coming home early.
 
Yep, coming my way. And we still don't have all the repairs done from Hurricane Irene and the flood damage. We did everything we could with the insurance help, but much of the upstairs is still primed sheetrock and not much else. We fix what we can, as we can afford to do and will get done eventually. We are on pins and needles about the track of Arthur, because it looks like we again get soundside flooding. We are praying it does not get much more than the 3 to 5 foot surge they are saying now. By the way, Stephen...welcome to the Outer Banks! I hope that you have enjoyed your stay and got to experience much of our beautiful OBX! We live on the Manteo soundside.
 
Our Coastal Watch in FL has been lifted, warnings are now in place only for Offshore.
 
Skeeter, hope you don't get much trouble from this storm. good luck.
 
Thanks, Gregory S...we are a bit worried! If it will just go about 100 miles further to the east of Hatteras that would be great news! I'll post as soon as I can after the storm goes by with updated. If we can get lucky enough to keep power, then I'll post some real-time updates and photos.
 
Up here they are saying that it will not hit the mainland. If that's true, there shouldn't be much of a surge.
 
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/234923.shtml?inundation#contents New, experimental storm surge prediction for "Arthur".

Some may find it useful.
 
The shift to northwest winds will blow the water out of the sounds and cause a surge on the west-facing shores of the barrier islands and where I live, Roanoke Island. The saving grace of Arthur is that it looks like it will be a fast mover and not pile up the sound waters on either side. Irene as only a Cat 1 when it got here, but since it crawled by at a snails pace, it blew all the water out our side and flooded Pamlico County, etc. Then when the winds turned all that water came rolling back and hit us really hard on the upper Outer Banks. We heard over and over how nobody had ever seen soundside flooding in Wanchese, Manteo and Rodanthe like that. I'm only 58 so my "never saw that before" was tempered by the 94 year old natives that said the same thing. If Arthur keeps his forward speed up, we might get a 5 foot soundside surge, but we can deal with that ok.
 
Soon we will be reading how global warming is causing this Tropical storm due to warmer sea temperatures.
The posting provides data to prove there is no basis for that claim. The temperature maps and more info can be obtained at this URL:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/07/...ff-the-east-coast-of-the-u-s/#comment-1674586

Tropical Storm Arthur – There Is Nothing Unusual About the Sea Surface Temperatures Off the East Coast of the U.S.
Posted on July 2, 2014 by Bob Tisdale
This post was prepared in anticipation of the usual nonsense we hear whenever a tropical storm or hurricane forms and is expected to strike the U.S. The map to the right (Map 1) presents the weekly sea surface temperatures (not anomalies) for the Eastern U.S. Coastal Waters from Florida to Massachusetts (26N-42N, 82W-70W), for the week centered on Wednesday June 25,2014. (Please click the map to enlarge it.) Seasonally warmed sea surface temperatures from the east coast of Florida northwards to North Carolina are well above the 26 deg C (79 deg F) value needed to generate and maintain tropical storms and hurricanes.

Before we look at the recent sea surface temperature anomalies, let examine longer-term data to put it in context.
http://bobtisdale.files.wordpress.com/2014/07/figure-2.png?w=640&h=427 and
https://bobtisdale.files.wordpress.com/2014/07/figure-4.png

Initial note: The anomalies presented in this post are referenced to the base-year period of 1971-2000, which are the base years used by NOAA for their Reynolds OI.v2 sea surface temperature data through the NOMADS website.
 
quote:
Originally posted by OBX Boater

Stephen...welcome to the Outer Banks! I hope that you have enjoyed your stay and got to experience much of our beautiful OBX! We live on the Manteo soundside.

Click to expand...


Been coming here yearly for 'bout 22 years. I have an in-law with a rental in Nags Head and get a free week each year! Can't beat that for just completing some chores for him. Our plans now are to wait until after the storm passes to leave - probably Friday noonish.
 
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