Choosing your weather to cross

boatbum

boatbum

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36
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Looking at the weather to cross over, coming up Tuesday looks like a possibility, but having had strong cold fronts move through and rough up the stream we don't think it will have enough time to settle down.
The weather underground is saying 2-4 but since the front is fast moving, we don't get much of a window.
It looks like it could be a while. Perhaps things won't be so bad this week and the next front will be coming in with less existing disturbance.
 
i dont' put a lot of faith in forecasts... if winds indeed turn more easterly today and tomorrow, then tuesday morning early is probably your best bet.
 
Hi Dan and Pascal,
Having spent this past April and 30 days Oct/Nov I can speak with a little experience.Oh ya...I have a retirement house here so I spend some alot of time here. I have also beem in contact with neighbors and friends....I dont know the reason but this whole year has been on the windy/wavey side.More than normal.
We have had a number of days where the wind was calm and the seas are still 2-4 ft.
I have NO experience in crossing, but I can tell you if I were going to make any crossings...always always have a bail out plan.
I had a few mornings where I rushed down to the boat for a day of fishing and before I got under way the wind/waves had changed my plans.
Storms and fronts far out to sea suddenly brings he waves upon us.
I also noticed a little trick....watch the local fisherman...if they go...you go.
Use caution and be safe...or take Pascal with you..he knows the ropes.
Bahama Bob
 
We are watching the wind velocity and wishing it would let up out there. About the only bailout available is turning back.

I'm thinking Tues early would be ok in a sporty for sure since we could run fast. But we can run around 13 and the wind clocks around to northwest during the day.
This window is too tight for us.
 
doesnt' hurt to take a look early AM... leave before sunrise to hit the stream at surnise and see how it is. early in the days, in the 4 hours it should take you at 13kts, it shoudn't be too bad. with another front coming down on tuesday night, you might have to wait a few more days... heck.. it's a Hatteras you're running :-)

where are you leaving from/to?
 
Dan, Where are you starting from? If you start out of Miami, you will have the shortest,fastest crossing. Fort lauderdale and north will require a little more time due to distance and Gulf Stream.
Seeing as your RO# is 36, Im sure you know all that.[:-idea]
 
We are going out of West Palm. The forcast seems to be improving a bit. We'll watch it and see how it goes. Hey, just 'cause I'm #36 doesn't say much ;). We thought about going a little further south and coasting north to west end, but either way, it's more diesel I suppose. If this forcast hadn't softened a bit in the last few hours we were going to sit a while. May may sit it out yet. Time will tell.
 
Oh well, it looks like the rule of North wind has decided to inject a flaw in the plan to cross tomorrow. Even tho the wind is light, it puts a ding in the plan since it makes the window smaller.
Anyone have experience in how accurate the predictions are for the gulf these days? Like is there a rule of thumb (of course no resposibility is laid down here) for north wind causing a certain wave height. Having been toasted on the Cheasapeake we're not inclinded to push it in the open waters of the gulf.
Just curious how often during the winter the easy rides over occur.

And Pascal,

She may be a Hatt, but she is totally unruly in a following sea if you let her get away, and non-stabilized.
 
Tonight
Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 5 to 10 knots. Near shore...seas 2 feet or less. Well offshore...seas 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 2 feet or less. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Isolated showers.
Tuesday
Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Isolated showers.
Tuesday Night
North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming around 15 knots after midnight. Near shore...seas 2 feet or less. In the Gulf Stream...seas 2 to 4 feet building to 4 to 6 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers.

----

looking at this forecast, i'd give it a shot tomorrow early. leave before sunrise to hit the stream at first light and see how it is. with light southerly winds, it should be real nice tomorrow early. By the time it picks up around mid day, you shoudl be there... and being NW 5-10 it shouldn't be too bad until it shifts to the north in the evening.

usually, the front arrivals are pretty accurate...

Dan, I agree... I was joking. earlier this year i tried to beat an appraoching front into Tampa with a stabilized 54 and it was a work out. the Naiads helped making it bearable but the autopilot coudln't keep up, i did 6 hours of manual steering fighting the boat in 4 to 6 footers coming of the port stern. i don't think you'll have problems tomorrow, if you leave early.

after that, it's hard to tell. Wed. is out, that's for sure, it way take at least another day for things to calm down and we know how accurate forecasts are at 72 hours!
 
I hear you, and this is like deja-vu with Albemarle Sound. The forcast had the front coming in late in the day, but it was waiting for us when we were half way across. Ugh. We don't need that with the Gulf. It's one thing when its only something like 5 miles. It's totally different when it's 25. We also pushed a window with Norfolk and got slapped around big time so we're a bit gun shy here. Realizing nothing is going to be perfect, we want to try, but we are wondering if we sit it out a while longer, if we will find ourselves with a wide enough window to allow for some peace of mind.
We're still tossing this one around. If the front was a 1/2 day later, we certainly would have gone for it.
 
Whassa hurry mon? Better you stay in FL awhile, see what da rest a dat is all about. Heck, I'm still hangin' around Savannah. Plenty of time on da clock. Only gonna take us two months to go from Mass. to FTL. Few months there, few months in the Keys/SW FL, go over and see Bahamas springtime-- they'll still be there when we get there!

George
 
Yes, oh well... Hey, we have had the discussion of staying in the US and heading further South. Somewhere in the keys instead.

All we need is a place or two where we can hole up for a couple of months and use the dink to have some fun.
 
then stick to the keys! you'll save the $300 clearance fee and bahamian fuel prices! although you'll be missing on the beaches and cristal clear waters...

why dont' you keep heading south, play around Biscayne Bay for a while and if a windows open up, go to Bimini?
 
That is one option we discussed, we were wishing there was more around Bimini. We're not really keen on running to Eluthra if we cannot make the Abacos. Things seem much more spread out in the southern bahamas and Freedom doesn't have much range if we have to push her.
 
Dan, IF 2-3 ft seas, mild wind, clear weather, How long would you estimate it would take you to make 60 mile crossing??
Pompano to west End is easy trip, when weather is good. Christmas deco at Port Lucaya marina around the holidays is really nice.
[:-cry]Wish I was going[:-cry]
 
Roughly 7+ hours from the crack o'dawn. This is based on coming down the lake, and then 55+ miles outside. It seems we have been averaging about 8 knots. We have been slowed down here and there since we were on the ICW, so perhaps this is a bit pesimistic, but all it takes is a blip here and there, and the trip takes a couple of hours longer, and the front shows up early, and everyone starts having a rough ride.
Not sure if we can do Pompano, it looks like the next inlet south we can use is Ft. L. since we need 18+ feet of bridge clearance.

Heck if we were in out 1988 Silverton 37C, we'd do it since it could run 17 knots all day and the engines would be at 60%. On this boat they'd be pushing close to 90% with the load we have on her.

PS The winds have already clocked around to the west here. The front is on the way. Maybe next time.
 
Tuesday doesn't look that bad according to Buoy Weather. 4-6 out of the SE turning SW. We did from Stuart to West End with a 5-10 out of the NE (it was just turning that direction as we departed). It wasn't a bad trip at all.
 
quote:
Originally posted by caltexfla

Few months there, few months in the Keys/SW FL, go over and see Bahamas springtime-- they'll still be there when we get to 'em! Meantime gonna be all windy there anyway.

George

Click to expand...


We'll be there, God, economy, wind - willing, next May. Abacos again, but this time, just the 2 of us and no agenda (our first trip our friends gave us the high-speed tour!)
 
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