Ernesto Molesto

[L. Keith]

As of today the northern Gulf is once again in the cross hairs. At least this year I don't have a house to have to deal with. Wonder how well a FEMA box floats? Going to a Katrina memorial service this evening. Plan on moving the fleet on Tuesday AM, if nothing changes.

 

[L Hall]

the new tracks are still within that margin of error...

We could all be always right if we used they same margin of error that they do. I'd rather that they would just say that they don't understand enough about weather patterns yet to be able to accurately forecast a hurricane path instead of putting dots on map. If you look at this:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2006/ERNESTO_graphics.shtml

You'll see that the original forecasts were outside today's "cone"

 

[L Hall]

No one is criticizing anyone. All I said is that there is a lot we just don't know about our weather - and many other things as well. They have a very difficult job. They have political pressure to make 10 day forecasts and scientific pressure to make 10 hour forecasts. The fact is that it is all a guess, not only course but intensity as well.