SS EL FARO Missing

Isn't there a thing known as the Mariner 1-2-3 rule which takes the bad forecasted path and widens it?

They knew it was out there. Still sounds like a bad decision was made especially when your on a boat loaded with containers that can't handle those conditions.

Anyone know how deep the water is where the ship sunk assuming last known spot?

Nevermind - I just heard 15,000 feet of water. Wow!
 
" Anyone know what the avg water temp is in that area?" -- NC

This might help:
looks to be in the 77F - 86F range.

at_sst_mm.gif
 
quote:
Originally posted by Radioactive

" Anyone know what the avg water temp is in that area?" -- NC

This might help:
looks to be in the 77F - 86F range.

at_sst_mm.gif


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I'm at home and don't have access to run the Canadian Model (CESM) - but off the top of my head, guesstimating - a person wearing a survival suit properly could still be alive in 80 degree water. At least, considering only hypothermia.
 
While the water is plenty warm, if you are floating in a life jacket/survival suit in anything over a 6' sea you are underwater more than you are above water. This vessel most likely went down last Tuesday night, a full seven days ago. Life Jackets and survival suits are more about recovering the body that keeping a soul alive. This vessel was a old Jones Act compliant hull that an operator keep in service a little too long. Too bad 33 souls were lost trying to keep to a schedule. I have never seen a tropical weather system equipped with a satellite dish to receive reports from the National Hurricane Center on where it is supposed to be. At one time prudent mariners understood that Hurricanes were Unpredictable, but these days folks assume that a tropical event is going to follow the script, in this case the results of that faulty thought process was deadly. Please learn from this.
 
quote:
Originally posted by L. Keith

While the water is plenty warm, if you are floating in a life jacket/survival suit in anything over a 6' sea you are underwater more than you are above water. This vessel most likely went down last Tuesday night, a full seven days ago. Life Jackets and survival suits are more about recovering the body that keeping a soul alive. This vessel was a old Jones Act compliant hull that an operator keep in service a little too long. Too bad 33 souls were lost trying to keep to a schedule. I have never seen a tropical weather system equipped with a satellite dish to receive reports from the National Hurricane Center on where it is supposed to be. At one time prudent mariners understood that Hurricanes were Unpredictable, but these days folks assume that a tropical event is going to follow the script, in this case the results of that faulty thought process was deadly. Please learn from this.

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Your points about life jackets and survival suits are completely wrong. In fairness, yes, after 5 days (I believe first notification was Thursday, followed by lost comms later in the day) - there's not a very strong chance, but I wouldn't be surprised to see someone beat hypothermia for 5 days in 80 degree water with a properly worn survival suit. They wouldn't be in good shape at all, especially in light of all the other issues that go along with floating for 5 days, but I wouldn't be surprised to see survivors today. Tomorrow or the next day, probably pushing it.

One thing I've learned after 16 years of finding people floating in the water when they're not supposed to be is that survivability models, both the Canadian Model and the CESM (pretty much the same thing, both based on horrific research done in Germany in the 1940's) are approximate guesses at best. I've seen them belly up (figure of speech - face down would be more accurate) when they should have still been shivering, and I've seen them alive when I was so sure they were dead it scared the hell out of me when they reached an arm out and looked at us when I pulled alongside to recover them.

No surprise that lifeboat was found smashed up, though. I think that was a given to anyone with the slightest idea of what getting a boat away or coming up alongside in bad weather entails.
 
NTSB has been handed the investigation. It looks like this whole episode will be examined in detail.

As to water survivability, I am constantly amazed how overly optimistic survival scenarios both marine and airline industry remain in light of overwhelming evidence to the contrary.
 
quote:
Originally posted by GeeBee

NTSB has been handed the investigation. It looks like this whole episode will be examined in detail.

As to water survivability, I am constantly amazed how overly optimistic survival scenarios both marine and airline industry remain in light of overwhelming evidence to the contrary.

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I think there's two main reasons for that, when it comes to survivability of a person in the water. First is that there's no hard and fast rule - two people in the same health and of the same body composition may have very different functional and survival times in the same environment - and there's an inherent bias for action in search and rescue that warrants exhaustive search efforts until even the outside survivability window has passed.

The second is that new data isn't really available for survival times, only functional times. Apparently this data has been fine tuned lately - I just learned that CESM actually isn't used anymore and has been replaced by a new program that basically accounts for 5 or 6 different body compartments, rather than just the core. But again, while this may give a more accurate prediction of functional time since it would account for the earlier onset of impairment in the extremities, it doesn't seem to revise any of the data for survival times.
 
I just came from recurrent, we had a ditching scenario around N58W35. As I briefed the fictional purser I said, "Make sure at least one flight attendant gets out the door and into the raft first." In debrief I was questioned about that. I said, "Water temp 30 degrees maximum, if we all do our jobs as listed we are dead. Someone has to be in the raft to know how to use the equipment ( signal kit, shade, bailer, inflator, patch kit etc).

Simply put, ditching in freezing and sub freezing water without a survival suit is a pure optimism IMHO. The only reason that deal on the Hudson came out so well is because it was calm water with boats right there. If anyone of those passenger went in the water more than 3 minutes there would have been deaths. When you see guys go overboard on those Alaskan boats and how fast they become disabled it leaves no doubt in my mind.
 
I would think also some one qualified would need to get in the raft ASAP to help the others in who might be less in control. Then help you and the rest of your crew in after you had started to feel the effects of hypothermia. Or at least give you s better chance of making it in.
 
quote:
Originally posted by GeeBee

I just came from recurrent, we had a ditching scenario around N58W35. As I briefed the fictional purser I said, "Make sure at least one flight attendant gets out the door and into the raft first." In debrief I was questioned about that. I said, "Water temp 30 degrees maximum, if we all do our jobs as listed we are dead. Someone has to be in the raft to know how to use the equipment ( signal kit, shade, bailer, inflator, patch kit etc).

Simply put, ditching in freezing and sub freezing water without a survival suit is a pure optimism IMHO. The only reason that deal on the Hudson came out so well is because it was calm water with boats right there. If anyone of those passenger went in the water more than 3 minutes there would have been deaths. When you see guys go overboard on those Alaskan boats and how fast they become disabled it leaves no doubt in my mind.

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3 minutes functional time is probably pretty close.

I may have worded my last comments poorly - my belief that, at least early yesterday there was still a chance for survivors, was based on both the water temp AND the fact one survivor was found in a survival suit.

Going into a raft with no hypothermia protective device in 30 degree water? Like you mentioned in the other scenario, boats virtually on scene already would be the only chance.

30 degree water, hundred or so (? guessing at capacity of those rafts) panicked survivors, air temp presumably not too much higher, no hypothermia protection, and one crewman? Feel bad for that one crewman. That's a bad, bad situation. I'm curious, though - what do those rafts carry for signaling? Visual only, or ELT or "RDF'able" beacons of any sort?
 
Sorry I meant to type Thursday (I had a couple of greenies while attending a Cruising the Coast Car Parade before typing). My point was that hypothermia is not you only enemy. The water is warm where this vessel is missing. If you are floating only in a survival suit or life jacket, Heavy seas will keep you underwater more than you are above water and unless you have gills you are going to drown in your suit. The other issue is potable water. Every offshore survival course I have taken encourages you to take as many bottles of fresh water into your suit as you can get a hold of. Trying to drink water in a survival suit is almost impossible in anything other than calm seas. The life boats were on Gravity Davits, which means that if the vessel had a list as reported only one of the boats, the one on the low side could be dropped. You can force the other boat, but not in heavy seas. Due to the age of the vessel a free fall life boat was not required. Also due to the age of the vessel and the most likely 1,000 coats of paint on the davits I doubt the crew was able to launch a boat. There were two (2) twenty-five man rafts on board and a 6 man raft forward. This was the best option, but you have to be in good physical shape to climb into a raft in 40' seas. This vessel most likely broke in half with the bow going one way and the accommodations block/stern going another way. I don't know the ages of these guys, but Union Crew means seniority and I'd guess there were some old dudes in the crew that most likely could not save themselves. Sad but trying to keep to a schedule killed this crew. I hope I'm wrong and these guys show up, but if that P-8 could not locate them they are SOL.
 
quote:
Originally posted by L. Keith

Sorry I meant to type Thursday (I had a couple of greenies while attending a Cruising the Coast Car Parade before typing). My point was that hypothermia is not you only enemy. The water is warm where this vessel is missing. If you are floating only in a survival suit or life jacket, Heavy seas will keep you underwater more than you are above water and unless you have gills you are going to drown in your suit. The other issue is potable water. Every offshore survival course I have taken encourages you to take as many bottles of fresh water into your suit as you can get a hold of. Trying to drink water in a survival suit is almost impossible in anything other than calm seas. The life boats were on Gravity Davits, which means that if the vessel had a list as reported only one of the boats, the one on the low side could be dropped. You can force the other boat, but not in heavy seas. Due to the age of the vessel a free fall life boat was not required. Also due to the age of the vessel and the most likely 1,000 coats of paint on the davits I doubt the crew was able to launch a boat. There were two (2) twenty-five man rafts on board and a 6 man raft forward. This was the best option, but you have to be in good physical shape to climb into a raft in 40' seas. This vessel most likely broke in half with the bow going one way and the accommodations block/stern going another way. I don't know the ages of these guys, but Union Crew means seniority and I'd guess there were some old dudes in the crew that most likely could not save themselves. Sad but trying to keep to a schedule killed this crew. I hope I'm wrong and these guys show up, but if that P-8 could not locate them they are SOL.

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I agree with most of that, except a life jacket or survival suit leaving you underwater more often than not. While you're certainly in for a ride, and the inherent buoyancy of a survival suit is going to float you in ways you don't want to be floating, even in a heavy sea you're going to have your head above water far more than under. Potable water - absolutely 100% spot on. As far as getting away the low side boat - with the kind of wind driven seas they were likely seeing I don't see a chance in a thousand that boat wouldn't be swinging from the falls and getting smashed to pieces. Even if they were able to gripe it close and load it and trip the hook with the falls up short, the drop would be catastrophic. I really can't see any probability of successfully getting a davit mounted open lifeboat away without being able to square up. Even at that, the crew would have to be on top of their game to trip both hooks at just the right moment - not to mention staying right side up in an open lifeboat in the middle of a hurricane.

I've come up alongside larger ships in a Motor Lifeboat (a shore based one meant to work hard like that every day, not just the one time it's needed) in even moderate seas and wrecked my blood pressure for days at how sketchy it can be. Getting someone off a cruse ship in a stokes litter in only a 6-10 sea left paint chips all over my deck and me without sleep for a couple days. I cannot imagine loading and launching underpowered fiberglass onboard boats in 3 to 5 times the weather, from a ship that's not under command.
 
" I'm curious, though - what do those rafts carry for signaling? Visual only, or ELT or "RDF'able" beacons of any sort?

Mirrors, dye and a portable 406 beacon.. The presumption is, if you have time enough to prepare for a ditching, you will have broadcast your position. Big thing is to get the shelter erected, otherwise the waves can swamp you.
 
The media reports the main engine failed before foundering. Any words on that?
 
They had 5 Polish workers on board to do prep work for a major engine upgrade. Sounds like someone disabled something that they shouldn't have.

Ken
 
quote:
Originally posted by Rustydog

They had 5 Polish workers on board to do prep work for a major engine upgrade. Sounds like someone disabled something that they shouldn't have.

Ken

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The story goes they might have been going to retube one of the boilers.

But it's totally wild speculation to suggest they would have disabled something they should not have and that caused the issue.

Hopefully they can find the vessels VDR and that will tell the true story.
 
15,000 of water and a week on the bottom during a major storm, the VDR is going to be a tough find.
First place I look for problems is recent changes/activity. I still have to keep an open mind.

Ken
 
One of the crew was from Croton on Hudson, where I live. Very sad indeed.
 
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