Waddington Effect

Greg - Thanks for that article. While I had never heard of it I do believe it to be true and have "gone against the grain" many times when it comes to service and maintenance intervals. The biggest example I can think of is oil changes. For years, even before boat ownership I have changed my oil in cars, trucks, motorcycles and just about everything else at 5000 miles. Even several performance vehicles I have had over the years. Mileage recommendations for oil changes ranged from 2500-3000 miles. I saw no appreciable difference in any of the oils and even with my last motorcycle that recommended 2000 mile oil changes I adhered to the 5000 mile. I even went so far as to occasionally test the oil over the years. In 2005 I did switch to synthetic oil. The same went for spark plugs and many years ago, points, condensers, etc. Shocks, struts, suspension components. All of it. If it ain't broke don't fix it.
 
Fascinating but don't aircraft inspections and overhauls still use time as the basis??
 
recommended oil changes at 2500 to 3000 miles came about because of the jiffy lubes of the world
my car's computer comes up with maintenance reminders based on driving habits. Most of my changes are at 7500 or so and you have to think that it is going to recommend conservatively
 
This reminds me of a story I heard years ago. Apparently in California there was a doctor "strike" and when the doctors stopped seeing patients, the death rate in the state declined. Don't know the true facts but it fits this scenario.
 
quote:
Originally posted by pdecat

Fascinating but don't aircraft inspections and overhauls still use time as the basis??

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No, many components utilize "trend monitoring" or condition monitoring. For instance, every hour or so, engine readings are sent in and recorded. These readings are analyzed for when an engine needs overhaul or IRAN (inspect and repair as necessary). Other components have wear, vibration monitors which advise servicers when maintenance is required. An example would be the cabin recirc fans. Used to be they were replaced on a time basis. Now, vibration monitors advise when the fan needs replacement, and the fan is only replaced when so indicated.

I myself have a recording engine monitor on my personal airplane, which records to an SD card. I use the monitor to detect engine problems such as ignition timing rather than constantly retime the mags at each annual inspection weather they need it or not.
 
A lot of the reasoning from this waddington was from a total ignorance of the actual maintenance being done. He took all maintenance as being done equally and by conscientious mechanics.

I know a air force mechanic during the VN war. Their maintenance schedule was such that they did very questionable work...such as spray painting rivits back in place rather than re-installing them.

Whaddaya thunk of this guys theory now?
 
Except for the fact that even a highly skilled and competent mechanic will have things go wrong when doing maintenance that is unnecessary. Just like every surgery no matter how simple has risks, so does every maintenance operation. For instance, a seemingly benign operation, changing oil. Now we know that every so often, an oil filter is defective and bursts. The more often you change oil, the more likely you are to draw the "golden BB", that is the defective filter. If you cut your interval say in half, you just doubled the chance of drawing the golden BB. So oil filter change is something you want to do not because it makes you feel good, but because the risk of not changing it exceeds the risk of the faulty component.

Now your chances of drawing the golden BB, are pretty small individually. But if you have a million anal retentive guys changing their oil for no reason, something is going to happen to somebody sooner, rather than later.

Especially in today's environment too many maintenance schedules reflect desires of the manufacturer wanting to sell parts or service and not reflecting a serious analysis of the risks and rewards of executing such procedures in light of the way the equipment is used.
 
Owners manual on my F250 diesel truck states to change the oil at 7500 miles but I change it when I notice longer crank times to get it started first time for the day. It typically occurs around 5000 miles.

Black stone oil analysis says to go to 7500 as well but I get uneasy when it has to crank longer to start. It's the "Phillbo Effect" I guess :)
 
I had a company that was under the guns of the Food and Drug people who insisted that the manufacturing machinery had a proper maintenance program, in place, in writing. For certain machines we established, and justified, a program of "run to failure".

The harder starting of the F250 would have been designated a "failure" regardless of time or mileage.
 
quote:
Originally posted by GeeBee

Except for the fact that even a highly skilled and competent mechanic will have things go wrong when doing maintenance that is unnecessary. Just like every surgery no matter how simple has risks, so does every maintenance operation. For instance, a seemingly benign operation, changing oil. Now we know that every so often, an oil filter is defective and bursts. The more often you change oil, the more likely you are to draw the "golden BB", that is the defective filter. If you cut your interval say in half, you just doubled the chance of drawing the golden BB. So oil filter change is something you want to do not because it makes you feel good, but because the risk of not changing it exceeds the risk of the faulty component.

Now your chances of drawing the golden BB, are pretty small individually. But if you have a million anal retentive guys changing their oil for no reason, something is going to happen to somebody sooner, rather than later.

Especially in today's environment too many maintenance schedules reflect desires of the manufacturer wanting to sell parts or service and not reflecting a serious analysis of the risks and rewards of executing such procedures in light of the way the equipment is used.

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Absolutely correct. The more times you give an "accident" to happen the more times it will happen.

George
 
quote:
Originally posted by Phillbo

Owners manual on my F250 diesel truck states to change the oil at 7500 miles but I change it when I notice longer crank times to get it started first time for the day. It typically occurs around 5000 miles.

Black stone oil analysis says to go to 7500 as well but I get uneasy when it has to crank longer to start. It's the "Phillbo Effect" I guess :)

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Have you tried Mobil Delvac 1 FULL synthetic? I go 10K no problem.
 
Actually, I've got a large stash of Delo I got a real good deal on but when that's all used up I think I will give the synthetic route a try.
 
Greg, Are you saying to not perform all routine maintenance on the recommended schedule? Leave spark plugs in til they rust in place or wait til the cooling system fails before replacing impellers or rusted up exhaust parts. Or the oil change. Leaving oil over the winter allows condensation that has built up to mix with the carbon build up in oil from the combustion...turns to acid. There may not be very much but bearings are lead coated steel and quickly start to etch from acid.
 
The source of many problems on cars and boats can be found by looking at the area last worked on by someone.

Diesel truck owners wanting very long life know to avoid taking the head off unless absolutely necessary.
 
quote:
Originally posted by pdecat

The source of many problems on cars and boats can be found by looking at the area last worked on by someone.

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+1
 
For true maintainence data look at military vehicles where the procurement winner is based on full life cycle cost including maintainence and vehicle repair. The results are markedly different than what standard maintainence schedule for civilian vehicles are with significantly less preventitive maintainence.

Having said that once the vehicle is delivered to the service the proposal maintainence schedules are thrown out the window and the vehicle is overmaintained worse than any civilian vehicle.
 
quote:
Originally posted by jtybt15

Greg, Are you saying to not perform all routine maintenance on the recommended schedule? Leave spark plugs in til they rust in place or wait til the cooling system fails before replacing impellers or rusted up exhaust parts. Or the oil change. Leaving oil over the winter allows condensation that has built up to mix with the carbon build up in oil from the combustion...turns to acid. There may not be very much but bearings are lead coated steel and quickly start to etch from acid.

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Not at all Charlie. What I am saying is each maintenance action has to be balanced by risks and rewards. Of course you have to change oil sometime, of course you have to change plugs, sometime but these should be based on an actual need and not a perceived need. I see for instance people changing oil every 3000 miles in cars with good filtration and synthetic oil because they think they are taking "better care" when in fact they are increasing chances for a failure. It sort of goes with the old pilot saying, "The engine most likely to fail is the one that just left the hangar".
 
IMO 3000 mi oil changes are something dreamed up by the auto mechanics to get business. The manual on my car says "not more than 10000 mi".
 
300 miles is the recommended oil change back when I first started doing oil changes about 1960. People who didn't know better started using the new detergent oil would clog oil filters as it cleaned the sludge and send it through out the engine. One of the reasons some cars didn't last too long back then.

probably not many have ever seen what one of those old engines looked like on the inside. opening the valve cover, the sludge would collect in all the low areas. it looked like fine oil soaked dirt, cuz that's what it was.
 
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