Where is Nate headed?

L

L. Keith

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(10-5-17) Projected track line took a large jump to the West for the 0500 update. Projected landfall moved from the Destin area to the Mouth of the Mississippi, which places us in the NW Quadrant. (Which goes to my old adage that the safest place to be is the first location the NHC projects as Landfall).

Intensity forecast range from Tropical Storm to Cat 3. Experience shows that October storms can do significant damage, but are generally not "Killer Storms", IE Camille & Katrina. Gulf still has plenty of heat out in the deep water, but cools closer to coast. Taking all of the above into consideration our Hurricane Plan is in full swing.

This morning, all of our Hurricane mooring lines were removed from a warehouse, loaded on a truck and will be loaded onto the boat around Noon. Food and drink will be loaded at that time. We will move to our Hurricane Hole, either late this PM or early AM on Friday. It is about an hour run to the location with two bridges that we do not require opening, but jam up when the big trawl boats have to wait for the bridge opening. The Hurricane hole is PROVEN SAFE in a Cat 5 Hurricane. Most likely we will rig about Six lines, 3/4" diameter, 200' in length, three strand nylon, secured to the base of large old growth pine trees and cypress trees that have stood for years and survived both Killer Storms of our past. If things look worse on Saturday, we can rig more lines and run anchors for extra holding, hopefully this will not be necessary.

Good luck to all, hope for the best, prepare for the worst. Now let's hear from the experts on where they predict landfall.
 
It has now moved back to Destin, which is 3.5 miles as the crow flies from my house.

I might have to start closing some hurricane shutters and checking the oil in the generator. I know it works because it came on for about 5 minutes yesterday.

There is a high over Tennessee and a low over western Oklahoma. That would tend to tell me that the track will stay westward for now. Of course pressure patterns move.

October storms (read OPAL which made landfall right here also) can certainly be major storms.

George

George
 
I dont see where the track has moved back to destin, its been dead centered on SE LA since yesterday morning and still is this morning although there seem to a hint of sharper turn once inland which i guess could happen ealier into the panhandle

What is odd is the intensity forecast. Not to second guess the nhc but 70kts seesm pretty low for a system which will be crossing the warm waters of the W carib and the gulf with little shear. I hope they re right
 
The track changes quite often. At any given time it has been anywhere from east of here to the Texas border. The last time I looked it seemed to be heading to Mobile.

George
 
I dont know which forecast you re looking at but NHC has never been east of TX border... there was a big shift yesterday morning at the 5am from the panhandle to louisiana and its been on te SE tip of LA and the MS/AL ever since. With s slight tick east on the 11am, consistent with uncertainty of the timing of the trun to the NE

Overall they ve been very consistent

Check the NHC archived tracks http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/NATE_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line_and_wind
 
Considering that the 5am track passes ove my head, I've been watching the official track ( and ensembles etc ) closely.

At the moment ( 11am official track ) it passes the coast at about Pascagoula/Mobile.

But I have not seen the wild gyrations being discussed.

Note: the "line" drawn is simply the center of the "cone of uncertainty". Anywhere within the cone is at risk. Plus only about 2 of 3 actual tracks remain in the cone, the other third are outside ot it.

This is crystal ball stuff. They are "predicting the future". While it might be useful, the storm will go wherever it wants to go...
 
I'm seeing the same as Bill. Being Gulf Shores appears to be just east of current predicted eye landfall I figure I'll catch as bad a storm surge as it will produce. Both boats are in inland storage and all my ground level property as been move either up 1 floor or to a inland storage bldg. I'm close to being able to head north, probably early in the morning.
 
I m really wondering about the intensity forecast at landfall. 60/70kts feels awfully low considering the lack of shear, warm water and recent expansion on sat pics.

Unless it get sheared right beofre landfall id plan for 90kts if i was living in the target Area
 
Oh Hell, Cantore is here in Gulf Shores, less than two miles from me. Less than 200 yards from our other condo. I want to know who the hell let him into the state...much less Gulf Shores.
 
Well, I should be just fine. I bought batteries ( even though I had some ), a loaf of bread and a gallon of milk!

This will surely cause the storm to go elsewhere and leave me wondering what to do with this stuff. :)

( At least no one uses masking tape on windows anymore... )
 
80kts and intensifying... with 8 hours to go. Yuck
 
I think they are over playing this one.
what are the tides when it hits?
If high then I can see surge being bad.
 
Within the last hour, one announcer stater up to 11 ft surge ( max, in selected area. maybe )

But the surge numbers are all over the place. 7 ft is common.

Also, surge is being quoted as "feet", ( as "the amount in excess of MSL + tide ) but also as "feet of inundation over land", which is undefined and confusing. Note they use the same numbers, just quote different units.
 
Over playing ? Really? I guess Sandy was over played too since the winds were lower than they are with Nate

Very little tides in the northern gulf, under 2'. Problem is the shape of the shoreline east of the mouth of the Mississippi, water can pile up on shore. And 100mph plus 23mph movement in the right quadrant adds up to some strong winds
 
Pascal IMO the reported winds include the forward velocity.
 
No in the forecasts, aircraft recon or sat estimates they are the measured winds around the center of circulation. So winds are usually stronger on the right side and a little weaker on the left

When measured by buoys or land stations then they are actual winds
 
Leading edge of eye wall presently 12 KM south of my location. Max winds here have been, maybe 50 knots, tide/surge approx. 5' above normal, could be higher in some locations due to shape of coast line. Beer cold, wine chilled, fresh lime juice squeezed for Margaritas. Keep safe.
 
I understand the plus minus effect of forward motion but they report max wind speed which would include forward motion, if any, regardless of how it was measured.
 
Eye passed over my house.

But you can't see that it did anything.

( Not complaining! )

re: surge

Well, the water got near, but did not exceed US Hwy 90 at my location. Top of road is at about 8 ft above MSL. Surge in this area was forecast for "7 to 11 ft above land inundation". Looks like it was 5 ft above MSL.
 
Good news Bill

Hopefully the wind shift will push the water back out
 
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