Irma

L

L. Keith

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Could be sporty in South Florida by the end of the week/weekend. Time to start reviewing your storm plans, dragging those extra lines out and removing all non essential gear. Better to be prepared and wrong than to be Wrong and not prepared. Keep Safe and keep that storm outta the GoM. If you wait for the Herd to start moving, you have waited too late.
 
Good advice L.Keith. Looking at the local S.West Florida news coverage people seem to be taking this pretty serious. Harvey may have woke up the folks here.
 
The turn north prediction keeps drifting west, not likening that...
 
At 5 days the errors can be large but the forecast has been holding since yesterday morning or so but typically it moves back n forth a bit. that thing is going to end up in the gulf :( it looks like a track like the one that hit SW Florida a few years back. Charlie?

A hit straight from the south is a problem here as you don't have many options, at least with a storm coming from the east you can move 100m up or down the coast

I m going to unstep the mast from my sail boat so I can move her to a house deep in the gables waterway... the hatt is a problem as it is not running, I have everything disconnected for the repower scheduled for late this month. May have to tow it to the same location. Then when that's done I have to take care of the Lazzara 84 i run. May be heading back east to the Bahamas... from where we just got back last night.

And if it s really close we need to move our two horses to stronger stalls.

Life is way too complicated !!
 
Yes it is complicated. We are gearing up at the condo now. Being on the board here the worst of it is getting people to take it seriously and remove everything including fan blades, screens and flower pots from their balconies. Being in Ft Myers area we could get whacked real bad.
 
Pascal, sounds like an awful lot to figure out and accomplish in just a few days. Best of luck to you and everyone with all of it.
 
Isn't the Bahamas in the storm path?
 
Well the Bahamas extends something like 800 miles so yes and no... if the storm track stays on a path toward key west going est is safer. But I have to wait to be sure.... if the storm turns north early and stick to the east coast then heading around to the west coast will be better. I have a feeling the 11pm may shift a bit east :(
 
Well the 11pm didn't shift but the 5am sure did... and in the words of NHC : "but out of respect for the previous forecast and the possibility the guidance may shift backto the west, it lies to the left of the bulk of the guidance "

Seen that kind of language whenever there is s large jump in the models. Wouldn't be surprised if the next one shift some more. It's going to be close. Looks like a run east to the Bahamas is out but a trip to the west coast may be in our future
 
Listening to CP now. No conjecture on which model(s) are more appropriate to respect (yet).

Edit: Leaning towards the more Eastern solution.
 
Since it was constructed in 92, my house up the creek in NC has experienced two hurricanes which resulted in water in the crawl space: Isobel and Irene. Now here comes Irma. . . I'm watching to see if being an "I' named storm is an omen. Will Irma continue to bend east and come at us with a vengeance? Stay tuned.
 
The 11pm from NHC hints at a slight east shift but they r still keeping the forecast track just offshore Miami in 4 days. One conforting thought is that I don't think the NHC has ever nailed a forecast at 4 days... on the other hand there has never been a cat 5 that lasted so long...

We ll see... right now the closest spot outside the media cone of death is Eleuthera. Hmmmm... Harbor Island is out because of the soon building swells in. the Devils backbone but spanish wells? :)
 
Pascal do you think there will be room at Spanish Wells at this late hour? Anyway, here in North Fort Myers we still expect to see winds in excess of 75mph.
 
Lots of boats are lined up at the locks to cross the Okeechobee Waterway at the St. Lucie Locks. As of 8 Am this morning they have it going through Miami again.

PascalG, I would recommend Hope Town, Elbow Cay, if there is room. Spanish has a current running through it even when its calm, I have been rocked to sleep there many times.

Good luck and stay safe!
 
We double lined the boat and shuttered the house, hopped into the motorhome and drove 13 hours just to north of Valdosta. The highways were packed all day yesterday. I hate to say this about our east coast friends, but I hope this thing keeps drifted east.

Ken
 
If you go to the Bahamas to ride this out, go someplace with enough elevation to at least make a decent wind break. Hatchet Bay at Alicetown on Eleuthera offers that. Good luck, make sure all insurance premiums are paid up and write your social security number on the inside of your arms with a permanent marker.
 
No I dropped the idea two days ago after the fcast shifted east. I was going to go to great harbor Cay which is a real hole but to close

Heading out at first light for st Pete Found a good protected dock.
 
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