Matthew Kicking A$$

yeah - my old ranch is from the 50's and I still have the panels I have to install one at a time...like a big puzzle lol. May wait or the 11pm outlook before I start the panels. Either way will have all day tomorrow to do them.
 
We got the accordion fold Aluminum shutters in 1999 and takes about 20 minutes to lock up tight. Especially since the east side of the house has 3 sliding doors, 5 ft, 6 ft and 8 ft. They close up quick and are (supposed to be) the strongest type available. We'll see. Or actually, hope we won't see.
 
We got into Key West after 10 days in Cuba on the 1st and I told the boss I thought there was no need to head back to FLL just to perhaps get there before a hurricane and have to move again. Which based on the European model looked likely at the time.

So we are staying here in Key West at Conch Harbor where the predicted winds are under 20kt so far. With a 1' surge. Others seem to have the same idea as the marinas are filling up with boats.

Since we were planning to come back down to Key West for Fantasy Fest it looks like we'll just stay here till then and save on the fuel costs of moving up after the storm and then back down later in the month.

Hope you're right about the high winds and surge up there being just "hype".

Good luck.
 
quote:
Originally posted by Radioactive

( Good plan, unless it loops back... Fair winds... )

Click to expand...


Yeah, the loop. Sort of a hurricane version of a " crazy Ivan".
:-)
 
I just found this fascinating web site which gives the wind velocities at various elevations for the Hurricane and other locations, you can change the elevation by clicking on "earth". Note that the wind velocity close to ground level is much less than at higher elevations. It is not clear to me what elevation the MSM and NOAA normally reportwind speed in the news. Is it the max? From the damage viewpoint the important wind velocity is near the surface not at 5000 ft. Many have noted that the surface and sea buoys have not confirmed the high reported velocities which is confirmed by this data.
Also if you look at the charts you can see that the area of max velocity is a very small diameter and the velocity drops quickly from the center of the storm.
Is NOAA and the MSM misleading the public, reporting too high velocities which most assume is at ground level?
https://earth.nullschool.net/#curre...ographic=-80.48,21.34,2392/loc=-75.461,23.028

you can convert hPa to elevation in feet here:
http://www.csgnetwork.com/pressurealtcalc.html
 
This is a common misconception with hurricanes. The area of hurricne force wind is usually pretty limited, 50 to 75 nm wide, and tropical storm winds usually extend over a 200/250nm swath but those don't cause much damage beyond a few trees or stuff that's not secure.

The problem in this case is thst Mathew will possibly hug the shore line for a fe hundred miles and could cause major damage over a wide area. Every mile counts and if it stays 75nm out, well within th forecast margin of error, there will be a lot less problem.

Same with the Exumas. The center is currently about 30/35nm form th central Exumas and brushed great exuma and the southern cays at the same distance. They will have damage but it may be just enough to make the difference between catastrophic or not so catastrophic damage. Will know later. It may also have been just enough to limit the actual surge which is the big worry
 
just saw a post from Staniel, water still high but so far no structural damage.
 
Watch out if this storm loops back and comes across So. Fla. from the east and into the Gulf.
 
What those cone of death graphics don't show, is that yes there is a chance of loop but as a TS not a hurricane. 5 days errors are huge anyway,
 
Having been through a fair share of these things nothing is for sure until it happens. It was not all that long ago that I made my last mistake with one of these. It was Danny and we were boarding up our Gulf Shores place. The short story, Danny was supposed to pass us well offshore and come ashore near PC then head up into GA. We decided to stay and enjoy the beach the next few days. Danny had other plans, turned around and came directly across us trapping us for 3 days without water/power. I still do not believe how stupid I was to ignore my past experience and go with the forecast. Danny was a 2 and not that big a deal, unless you were a 100yrds from the beach, which we were.
 
As long as this remains an option, I will remain concerned.

Will it? No idea. Have the prediction programs managed to repeatedly include it? Yes.

In my mind, that means that the option to enter the GoMex remains on the table...
 
hoping all the BE members stay safe....you watch Matthew and we'll watch Nicole.
 
I think everyone is watching them both. They could become conjoined twins.
 
The windfield. Something very important but largely ignored by weather broadcasters. Much better to scare the living daylights out of people by giving the impression that hurricane force winds extend hundreds of miles from center when the area of severe winds is usually relatively small compared to the overall storm coverage.

You almost never hear them talk about winds in each quadrant even though the imformation is readily available from the NHC.
 
quote:
Originally posted by Veebyes

The windfield. Something very important but largely ignored by weather broadcasters. Much better to scare the living daylights out of people by giving the impression that hurricane force winds extend hundreds of miles from center when the area of severe winds is usually relatively small compared to the overall storm coverage.

You almost never hear them talk about winds in each quadrant even though the imformation is readily available from the NHC.

Click to expand...


Well they talked about all that on MSNBC tonight.
 
We dodged a bullet here in S. Florida. North is getting hammered.
 
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